关键词: Weibull时间序列函数, 负指数法, 地表移动变形, 动态

Abstract: In order to analyze the occurrence and development mechanism of surface movement and deformation，a dynamic subsidence prediction method based on negative exponential method and Weibull time sequence function is proposed.The method is based on researching the Weibull time sequence function that describes the variation process of observation points sinking in surface subsidence area，and it is considered that while describing the process of dynamic subsidence of the observation points in the ground，the Weibull time sequence function well fit the subsidence-time (w-t) curve，and the speed-time (v-t) curve and acceleration time (a-t) curve that are deduced by the subsidence-time (w-t) curve also meet the physical process of surface subsidence changes with time effectively.The negative exponential method based on the measured data has the characteristics of strong practical applicability and high prediction accuracy while describing the surface movement basin，the main section of semi-infinite mining negative exponential method subsidence prediction formulas and parameters calculation method are given.According to the general form of the main section of the dynamic subsidence model，the dynamic surface subsidence，tile，curvature，horizontal movement and deformation model of the main section of subsidence basin under the fully mining conditions are established based on combining with the Weibull time sequence function and negative exponential subsidence function，and the dynamic subsidence of a coal mine is predicted.The results show that the prediction results is consistent with the measured results，therefore，the prediction method proposed in this paper can provide some reference for the prediction of dynamic subsidence.

Key words: Weibull time sequence function, Negative exponent method, Surface movement and deformation, Dynamic prediction