关键词: 时间参数, 时间序列, 灰色系统, 动态更新

Abstract: Aiming at the problem of inaccurate prediction of current mining subsidence,the dynamic precision prediction method of mining subsidence based on aging Knothe function with methods of measurement analysis and theoretical research is put forward.The main achievements obtained are as following:①The values of parameter C are negative exponential decay,and finally tend to a certain value after the end of the mining.②The experimental results of the prediction of the Knothe function C value showed that:In terms of holistic prediction,the integrity of the AR model is the best,while the traditional GM (1,1) model has a large error,and the prediction results of the cubic exponential smoothing method are gross errors.In the case of single-stage prediction,the predictions of C with the traditional GM (1,1) model and the AR model are unstable,and the errors of the three-order exponential smoothing method are all small and stable.The research results are of reference significance to the dynamic precise prediction of mining subsidence.

Key words: Time parameter, Time series, Grey system, Dynamic updating