尾矿库安全态势分析及其敏感因素研究

金属矿山 ›› 2021, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (11): 165-172.

尾矿库安全态势分析及其敏感因素研究

柯丽华^1，2 黄畅畅^1，2 李全明 ³李振涛³ 叶义成^1，2 张光权1^，2张莹^1，2

1. 武汉科技大学资源与环境工程学院，湖北武汉 430081；2. 湖北省工业安全工程技术研究中心，湖北武汉430081 ； 3. 中国安全生产科学研究院，北京 100012

出版日期:2021-11-15 发布日期:2021-12-16
基金资助:
“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目（编号：2017YFC0804600）；湖北省重点研发计划项目（编号：2020BCA082）

Safety Situation Analysis and Sensitive Factors Study of Tailings Pond

KE Lihua^1，2 HUANG Changchang^1，2 LI Quanming³ LI Zhentao³ YE Yicheng^1，2 ZHANG Guangquan^1，2 ZHANG Ying^1，2

1. School of Resource and Environmental Engineering，Wuhan University of Science and Technology，Wuhan 430081，China；2. Industrial Safety Engineering Technology Research Center of Hubei Province，Wuhan 430081，China；3. China Academy of Safety Science and Technology，Beijing 100012，China

Online:2021-11-15 Published:2021-12-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对尾矿库日常安全管控的需求，采用集对分析方法和可拓理论，提出了基于集对可拓侧距关联算法的尾矿库安全态势及其敏感因素分析模型。利用集对分析中的同异反概念和可拓理论中的物元描述方式，建立了描述尾矿库安全态势的分析系统。考虑尾矿库安全评价指标具有“极大型”或“极小型”的特点，以安全等级区间的端点取值最优为原则，建立了基于端点最优的集对可拓侧距关联算法，计算尾矿库安全状态的同异反参数，确定尾矿库安全综合联系度和指标安全影响联系度。基于集对势的定义，构建了尾矿库安全态势及其敏感因素分析模型。通过计算尾矿库的集对势和剖析同异反参数的相对大小，较好地反映了尾矿库安全状态的变化趋势，并系统地分析了各类评价指标对尾矿库安全状态的影响程度，为制定有效的安全防控措施提供了工作路径。采用基于集对可拓侧距关联算法的尾矿库安全态势及其敏感因素分析模型，对某尾矿库的安全状态及其变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明：该尾矿库整体安全状态为N2，其集对势为0.57，反映该尾矿库处于良好状态，但其安全状态具有向不安全等级发展的较强趋势；同时，确定影响该尾矿库安全状态的一级敏感指标为下游坡比（C22）、堆积容重（C32）和地质条件（C41），其管控力度由大到小依次为C22 、C32、C41，与实际情况相符。

关键词: 尾矿库, 安全态势, 敏感因素, 集对分析, 可拓侧距关联函数

Abstract: Aiming at the requirements of daily safety management and control of tailings pond， using set pair analysis method and extension theory， a tailings pond safety situation and sensitive factor analysis model based on set pair extension side distance correlation algorithm is proposed.The concept of similarity， difference and opposition in set pair analysis and the description method of matter element in extension theory are used to establish the analysis system for describing the safety situation of tailings pond. Considering that the safety evaluation index of tailings pond has the characteristics of "extremely large" or "extremely small"， the set pair extension side distance correlation algorithm is established based on the principle of the optimal value of the end point of the safety level interval. The similar， different and opposite parameters of the safety state of tailings pond are calculated， and the comprehensive safety connection degree of tailings pond and the safety impact connection degree of the index are determined. Based on the definition of set pair situation， an analysis model of the safety situation of tailings pond and its sensitive factors was constructed. By calculating the set pair situation of tailings pond and analyzing the similar， different and opposite parameters， the change trend of the overall safety state of tailings pond has been reflected well and the influence degree of various evaluation indexes on the safety status of tailings pond has been systematically analyzed so as to provide a working path for formulating effective safety prevention and control measures.A tailings pond safety situation and its sensitive factor analysis model based on set pair extension side distance correlation algorithm is used to analyze the safety status and change trend of a tailings pond. The analysis results show that the overall safety state of the tailings pond is N2， and its set pair situation is 0.57， which reflects that the tailings pond is in a good condition， but its safety state has a strong trend of developing to the unsafe level. At the same time， the first level sensitive indexes affecting the safety state of the tailings pond are determined as the downstream slope ratio （C22）， bulk density （C32） and geological condition （C41）， and the control degree from large to small is C22，C32 and C41， which is basically consistent with the actual situation of the tailing pond.

Key words: tailings pond, safety situation, sensitive factors, set pair analysis, extension side distance correlation function

柯丽华, 黄畅畅, 李全明李振涛叶义成, 张光权, 张莹, . 尾矿库安全态势分析及其敏感因素研究[J]. 金属矿山, 2021, 50(11): 165-172.

KE Lihua, HUANG Changchang, LI Quanming LI Zhentao YE Yicheng, ZHANG Guangquan, ZHANG Ying, . Safety Situation Analysis and Sensitive Factors Study of Tailings Pond[J]. Metal Mine, 2021, 50(11): 165-172.

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