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金属矿山 ›› 2026, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (3): 203-211.

• 安全与环保 • 上一篇    下一篇

融合2-4 模型与关联算法的金属矿山事故行为原因研究

张晓甜1 郭志国1,2 刘祖文3 郑彪华1 周令剑1   

  1. 1. 江西理工大学应急管理与安全工程学院,江西 赣州 341000;2. 中国矿业大学安全工程学院,江苏 徐州 221116;
    3. 鄱阳湖流域水工程安全与资源高效利用国家地方联合工程实验室,江西 南昌 330099
  • 出版日期:2026-03-15 发布日期:2026-04-01
  • 通讯作者: 郭志国(1988—),男,副教授,博士(后),硕士研究生导师。
  • 作者简介:张晓甜(1999—),女,硕士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(编号:52264018);江西省教育厅科学技术项目(编号:GJJ2200835)。

Study on Causes of Accident Behavior in Metal Mines by Combining 2-4 Model and Correlation Algorithm

ZHANG Xiaotian1 GUO Zhiguo1,2 LIU Zuwen3 ZHENG Biaohua1 ZHOU Lingjian1   

  1. 1. School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000,China;
    2. School of Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China;3. National-local Joint Engineering
    Laboratory of Water Engineering Safety and Efficient Utilization of Resources in Poyang Lake Watershed,Nanchang 330099,China
  • Online:2026-03-15 Published:2026-04-01

摘要: 频发的金属矿山事故给社会带来了巨大危害并造成重大的经济损失。为有效预防事故发生,采用事故
致因2-4 model 分析方法,分别从直接原因、间接原因、根本原因及根源原因4 个层次对10 a 内(2014—2023 年)30 起
典型的金属矿山伤亡事故展开分析,并使用Apriori 算法挖掘直接原因中各因素之间的关联性。分析结果表明:30 起
金属矿山伤亡事故中存在18 种288 次不安全动作、15 种204 次不安全物态。通过计算发现不遵守作业规章是事故中
与其他风险项联系最紧密的节点,同时列出了置信度大于80%的关联规则;行业安全文化缺失使得企业安全管理体
系不完善,进而影响员工安全意识与安全习惯的养成,导致个体产生不安全行为或忽略生产环境的不安全物态。金
属矿山事故预防需要整个行业共同贯彻安全方针,强化安全文化氛围;同时企业应重点健全安全管理体系与培训机
制,强化作业环境的安全建设,提升员工的安全素养。

Abstract: Frequent metal mine accidents have brought great harm to society and caused great economic losses. In order
to effectively prevent accidents,30 typical metal mine casualty accidents in the past ten years (from 2014 to 2023) were analyzed
from four levels:direct cause,indirect cause,root cause and root cause,using 2-4 model analysis method,and Apriori algorithm
was used to mine the correlation between direct cause factors. The results show that there are 288 unsafe movements of
18 kinds and 204 unsafe physical states of 15 kinds in 30 metal mine accidents. Through calculation,it is found that non-compliance
with operating regulations is the node most closely related to other risk items in the accident,and the association rules
with confidence greater than 80% are listed. The lack of safety culture in the industry makes the safety management system of
enterprises imperfect,and then affects the development of safety awareness and safety habits of employees,resulting in unsafe
behaviors of individuals or unsafe conditions of ignoring the production environment. Metal mine accident prevention needs the
whole industry to implement the safety policy and reinforce the safety culture atmosphere. At the same time,enterprises should
focus on improving the safety management system and training mechanism,strengthen the safety construction of the operating
environment,and improve the safety literacy of employees.

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