关键词: 岩层移动, GM（1, 1）, 预测

Abstract: Strata movement and ground subsidence caused by mining destroyed the surrounding environment a lot, like ground fissures, building damages, collapse crater and so on, so it is of great importance to understand the laws of strata movement and ground subsidence for protecting environment and controlling building damages.The practical data from a monitoring station are studied and analyzed as the prototype.Then a GM（1,1) model is established with MATLAB software.The result showed that for the monitoring points in the strata, the ones which are above of the working face is fit for GM(1,1) well because their subsidence is increasing with the relative error of less than 10%; the ones which are outside of the working face can not fit the GM（1,1) simulation due to their great volatility.

Key words: Strata movement, GM(1,1), Prediction