欢迎访问《金属矿山》杂志官方网站,今天是 分享到:

金属矿山 ›› 2011, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (07): 66-68+117.

• 采矿工程 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于实物期权的矿业投资时机分析

陈海燕1,2,谢志勤2,蔡嗣经1   

  1. 1.北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院;2.中国有色工程有限公司
  • 出版日期:2011-07-08 发布日期:2011-07-11

Analysis of Mining Investment Timing based on the Real Option

Chen Haiyan1,2,Xie Zhiqin2,Cai Sijing1   

  1. 1.University of Science and Technology Beijing;2.China ENFI Engineering Co.,Ltd.
  • Online:2011-07-08 Published:2011-07-11

摘要: 可延迟的矿业投资相当于一个买入期权。基于改进的最佳投资时机决策模型,实证分析了国外某锌矿投资的临界价格和临界价值。结果表明:锌矿投资的临界价格p*=2 069.69美元,临界价值V(P*)=348.60美元,在2010年对该锌矿进行投资是可行的;锌矿投资的临界价格对矿产品生产成本C的变化最为敏感,生产成本降低1%,投资临界价格降低0.772 1%;临界价值对便利收益δ的变化最为敏感,便利收益降低1%,则临界价值提高1.329 7%。  

关键词: 实物期权, 矿业投资时机, 临界价格

Abstract: The mining investment that can be delayed is equal to a real option.Based on the improved decision-making model of best mining investment timing,the critical price and value of zinc mine investment at abroad were analyzed.The results showed that the critical price of the zinc mining investment P* is $2 069.69 and the critical value V(P*) is $348.60.It is feasible to invest the zinc mining project in 2010.The critical price of the zinc mining is most sensitive to production cost C.If the production cost C decreases by 1%,the critical price will be reduced by 0.772 1%.The critical value is most sensitive to convenience yield δ.If the convenience yield decreases by 1%,the critical value will be increased by 1.329 7%.

Key words: Real option, Mining investment timing, Critical price