Abstract: Based on a relatively small-scale，the software MSPS，which is based on the probability integral method，is used to forecast the plantation-evolution trends caused by coal mining subsidence in A and B county of Shandong.The results show that the areas in crop and coal production of A and B county is 31 658 hm² and 19792 hm² respectively，which account for 71.03 and 80.32 % of the coal-bearing areas and account for 27.70 and 20.21% of cultivated fields respectively.The arable lands are declining with the continued exploitation of coal mine.It is predicted that till the mines closure，there will be 38 934 hm2 arable lands damaged，accounting for 75.67% of the total overlapped area of crop and coal production，which means that there will be about 0.37 million farmers without land to cultivate.

Key words: Probability integral, Coal mining subsidence, Overlapped area of crop and coal production, Plantation-evolution forecast