关键词: 冲击地压, 预测, 分级, 因子分析, Fisher判别分析, 回代估计法

Abstract: In view of the issues of rock-burst hazard classification in the mine，the factor analysis and Fisher discriminant analysis theory are applied to select coal thickness，coal seam dip angle，buried depth，structure condition，dip angle of coal seam，coal seam thickness changes and the gas concentration，the roof management，unloading，ring of coal guns as influence factors.Through the analysis of the correlation between the influencing factors，the appropriate public factors are extracted from the factors with strong correlation with the application of factor analysis.The Fisher discriminant analysis（FDA) model based on factor analysis is built to predict the rock-burst hazard rating.23 sets of measured data from Sichuan Yanshitai Mine are used as samples to make training.Then，the backward substitution method was adopted to verify the effectiveness of the model，with the misjudgment rate of 0.With another 12 groups of measured coal mine dynamic phenomena data that are not trained as cases，their hazard classification are predicted and compared with that obtained by the traditional Fisher discriminant method.The results show that the sample index number decreases and the correlation reduced by the factor analysis.It can effectively predict the level of rock burst hazards，and the prediction misjudgment rate is zero through this model.

Key words: Rock burst, Prediction, Classification, Factor analysis, Fisher discriminant analysis, Re-substitution method