基于EAHP的尾矿库溃坝风险多级模糊综合评价研究

金属矿山 ›› 2020, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (11): 37-43.

基于EAHP的尾矿库溃坝风险多级模糊综合评价研究

柯丽华,张莹,李全明,李振涛,叶义成,王其虎,黄畅畅

1. 武汉科技大学资源与环境工程学院，湖北武汉430081；2. 湖北省工业安全工程技术研究中心，湖北武汉430081；3. 中国安全生产科学研究院，北京 100012

出版日期:2020-11-15 发布日期:2020-12-22
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目（编号：2017YFC0804600）；2017年安全生产重特大事故防治关键技术科技项目（编号：hubei-0002-2017AQ）；湖北省中央引导地方科技发展专项（编号：2019ZYYD060）

Multi-level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model Based on EAHP for Dam Break Risk of Tailings Pond

KE Lihua,ZHANG Ying,LI Quanming,LI Zhentao,YE Yicheng,Wang Qihu,HUANG Changchang

1. College of Resource and Environmental Engineering，Wuhan University of Science and Technology，Wuhan 430081，China；2. Industrial Safety Engineering Technology Research Center of Hubei Province，Wuhan 430081，China； 3. China Academy of Safety Science and Technology，Beijing 100012，China

Online:2020-11-15 Published:2020-12-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对尾矿库溃坝风险评价中存在群决策的主观随意性和语言模糊不确定性等问题，建立了基于可拓层次分析法（Extension Analytic Hierarchy Process， EAHP）的尾矿库溃坝风险多级模糊综合评价模型。采用可拓区间判断矩阵全面客观地描述了各位专家对该尾矿库溃坝风险评价指标权重的模糊意见和偏好，利用各位专家与专家组意见的偏差比重确定各位专家的重要性系数，并引入一致性系数[α]和[θ]处理可拓综合区间判断矩阵R，进而确定指标权重系数[ωj]，凸显了各位专家在尾矿库溃坝风险群决策中的不同作用，简化了可拓区间判断矩阵一致性检验过程，提高了指标权重的准确性。将建立的尾矿库溃坝风险多级模糊综合评价模型应用于杨家湾尾矿库溃坝风险评价中。评价结果表明：该尾矿库的溃坝风险等级为安全，且坝体失稳和洪水漫顶对该尾矿库的安全影响较大，与杨家湾尾矿库日常管理的实际情况相符。该方法有效解决了尾矿库溃坝风险分析中的权重群决策问题，既避免了专家意见的遗失，又降低了专家主观判断的随意性对评价结果带来的不利影响，提高了尾矿库溃坝风险分析的有效性。

关键词: 尾矿库, 溃坝风险, 可拓层次分析法, 隶属度, 模糊综合评价

Abstract: Aiming at the subjective arbitrariness of group decision making and linguistic fuzzy uncertainties in the risk assessment of dam breakage of tailings pond， a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive assessment model of dam breakage risks of tailings pond based on the extension analytic hierarchy process （ EAHP） is established. The extension interval judgment matrices have been used to objectively and comprehensively describe the vague opinions and preferences of experts on the evaluation index weight of the tailings dam breach risk. The deviation between the opinions of each expert and the expert group has been used to calculate the importance coefficient of each expert. Then the index weight coefficients [ωj] have been determined after the consistency coefficient [α] and [θ] have been introduced to deal with extension interval judgment matrix R.Doing by this， the effects of all the experts in the group decision- making of the dam break risk about the tailings pond have been highlighted， the consistency test process of extension interval judgment matrices have been simplified and the reliability of index weight has been improved. The multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the dam breaking risk about the tailings pond has been applied to analyze the dam break risk of the Yanjiawan tailings pond. The evaluation results show that the risk level of the tailings pond is safe， and the dam body instability and flood overtopping have a great impact on the safety of the tailings pond， which is consistent with the actual the daily management situation of Yangjiawan tailings pond. This method can be used to effectively solve the problem of weight group decision making in the risk analysis of tailings dam break， avoid the loss of expert opinions， reduce the adverse impact of the randomness of expert's subjective judgment on the evaluation results and improve the effect of the risk analysis of tailings dam break.

Key words: tailings pond, risk of dam break, EAHP, degree of membership, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

柯丽华, 张莹, 李全明, 李振涛, 叶义成, 王其虎, 黄畅畅. 基于EAHP的尾矿库溃坝风险多级模糊综合评价研究[J]. 金属矿山, 2020, 49(11): 37-43.

KE Lihua, ZHANG Ying, LI Quanming, LI Zhentao, YE Yicheng, Wang Qihu, HUANG Changchang. Multi-level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model Based on EAHP for Dam Break Risk of Tailings Pond[J]. Metal Mine, 2020, 49(11): 37-43.

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