关键词: 尾矿库　 安全风险评价　 层次分析法　 熵权法　 动态评价

Abstract: As an important facility for storing and disposing of waste in mining production,the safe operation of tailings reservoir directly affects the surrounding environment and the safety of residents′ lives and property. Due to the large number of tailings reservoirs in China,once an accident such as dam break occurs,it may lead to serious environmental pollution and casualties. Accurately evaluation the safety risks of tailings reservoir is a prerequisite and key technology for achieving safe management and risk prevention and control of tailings reservoir. This article proposes a dynamic monitoring and evaluation model for tailings pond safety risk,which combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Entropy Weight Method (EWM),in response to the lack of consideration of real-time dynamic data in traditional evaluation methods. Firstly,the research status of safety risk evaluation of tailings reservoir at home and abroad was systematically reviewed,and the hazards and safety risks were analyzed in detail. A comprehensive safety risk evaluation index system was constructed,which included 38 influencing factors covering seven aspects,including the surrounding environment of the reservoir area,flood discharge system,and tailings dam. Secondly,the multi-source data is divided into static data and dynamic data,and the AHP-EWM combined weighting method is used to calculate the comprehensive weight of each influencing factor. A dynamic safety risk evaluation model combining static and dynamic factors is constructed and embedded into the online monitoring and early warning system,achieving real-time dynamic evaluation of the safety risk of the tailings reservoir. Finally,an empirical analysis was conducted using the Qingshan tailings reservoir as an example. The evaluation results showed that the tailings reservoir was in a safe state,consistent with the results of regular manual inspections,validating the effectiveness and accuracy of the model. The model proposed in this study can comprehensively and scientifically reflect the safety risk level of tailings reservoirs,providing strong technical support for the safety management and risk prevention and control of tailings reservoirs. 

Key words: tailings reservoir,security risk evaluation,AHP,EWM,dynamic evaluation