关键词: 概率积分法, 沉陷预计, 地表移动

Abstract: Probability integral method, as a main method used in China in mining subsidence prediction, has gained wide application. As there is great deviation in the basic prediction from the reality, its practical application has encountered with many difficulties. Based on a comprehensive review of a great amount of literature, the sources for the errors in the subsidence prediction by using probability integral method are analyzed in detail, and the present correction systems for the method are summarized. On this basis, the research orientation of the perfection of probability integral method model is proposed.

Key words: Probability integral method, Subsidence prediction, Ground surface movement