关键词: 模糊层次分析, 集对分析, 尾矿库, 安全评价, 安全预测

Abstract: With the decision-making requirements of tailing ponds' security management，the index system on the safety assessment and prediction of the tailing pond was set up based on the analysis of the tailing ponds' danger sources.The application of the diversity factor and the set pair potential in tailing ponds' safety assessment and prediction was introduced in detail.The fuzzy hierarchy analysis method and set pair analysis were applied to evaluate and forecast the safe condition of the tailing pond.Then the safety level of the tailing pond was established to reflect the safety management and analyzed the development tendency of safe condition.A new way of combining safety assessment with safety prediction was explored，which can support safe operation and safety management of the tailing pond effectively.

Key words: Fuzzy hierarchy analysis, Set pair analysis, Tailing pond, Safety assessment, Safety prediction