关键词: 灰色理论, 设备能力, 分析、预测, GM（1, 1）模型

Abstract: In order to analyze the equipment capacity in surface coal mine，a theoretical model of grey system was built based on the grey system theory modeling，association degree analysis and the residual error identityThen this model was applied to analyze and predict equipment capacity of some surface coal mineIt is shown that the grey system theory can image equipment capacity because it has the virtue fitting precision and reliable prediction results according to posteriorvariancetest and precision testing gradeIt provides an important method for mine design，production planning and mining equipment capacity calculation of mining and stripping engineering，and distinguishes from the traditional static parameters methods.

Key words: Grey theory, Equipment capacity, Analyze and predict, GM（1,1) model