Abstract: The discrete element numerical simulation on the exploration of multi-layer vanadium-containing shale deposit of Shanghengshan is carried out. And the development curve of the height of water flowing fractured zone with four factors of mining depth，dip angle of orebody，sublevel height and mining thickness is obtained based on the estimation. The paper designs the orthogonal experiment of numerical simulation with four factors and three levels. By making the range analysis of the orthogonal experiment，the impact levels of the four influencing factors to the height of water flowing fractured zone have been ranked as: dip angle of orebody > sublevel height > mining thickness > mining depth. The comparative analysis indicated that it is lack of rationality to apply the empirical formula for the height calculation of water flowing fracture development in testing into the height calculation of water flowing fractured zone for multi-vanadium-containing shale. A multi-factor prediction function for the development height of water flowing fractured zone is built by considering the range as the weight of each factor influencing on the development height of water flowing fractured zone，and combining with the estimated results from the curve.

Key words: Canadium-containing shale, Water flowing fractured zone, Discrete element analysis, Curve estimation, Range analysis