Abstract: In order to effectively identify the danger area of slope and accurately judge the stability state of slope,a set of " face-point-surface" slope comprehensive evaluation method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, MSARMA method and FLAC3D was proposed. Firstly,according to the composition and structural characteristics of the on-site slope rock mass,disaster factors were summarized,while assignment criteria for discrete and continuous variables were divided based on the landslide body characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution. Following,based on the comprehensive evaluation principle of fuzzy mathematics,the high and steep side stability in the multi-factor influence regions was comprehensively evaluated,while the spatial division of the unstable region was determined. Finally,the slope potential slip surface in the unstable zone of the western side was utilized as the calculation model object,while the sensitivity analysis of the slope impact factor was conducted through the MSARMA method,and the sensitivity factors were determined. The FLAC3D finite difference method was utilized for numerical simulation analysis,and the conclusion was drawn. Taking Antaibao Open-pit Coal Mine as an example,its unstable area was divided and the evolution law of displacement field under sensitive factors such as seepage and vibration was obtained. The results showed that under natural conditions,the maximum displacements in X and Y directions of the slope are 30 cm and 41 cm,while under seepage conditions,the maximum displacements in X and Y directions of the northwest slope are 45cm and 70 cm,respectively. Under the action of earthquake,the displacements at the bottom of the north slope and the west slope change little,while the displacement at the top is larger. Based on the above results of numerical simulation,the design scheme of slope reinforcement and monitoring in unstable region was proposed to ensure the stability of the whole slope. The integrated evaluation method could provide reference for the stability analysis of similar high and steep rock slopes.

Key words: high and steep rock slope,stability evaluation,fuzzy mathematics,sensitivity analysis,MSARMA,FLAC3D