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Metal Mine ›› 2012, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (11): 14-18.

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Forecast of Aluminum Consumption Based on GM(1,n) Model

Xue Yazhou1,2   

  1. 1.School of Earth and Space Sciences,Peking University;2.Chinese Academy of Land and Resource Economics
  • Online:2012-11-15 Published:2012-11-27

Abstract: Scientific forecast on the consumption can guide the industrial adjustment and development. The Grey theory can decrease the subjective attribute to the less information system. The influential factors for Aluminum consumption include the economic and social development,industrial structure,substitution of resources,use of secondary Aluminum,policy,and resources supply etc.. GM(1,n) Model is used to forecast the growth rate of GDP approximate 8%,the consumption of Aluminum about 23.5~28.7 million tons,and bauxite 90 million tons relevantly needed. The forecasted value reached maximal level through accuracy assessment and is reasonable after analysis. 

Key words: Grey theory, Aluminum consumption, Forecast