Abstract: The safety evaluation of the tailing pond is a complex system, hence, many factors should be considered. The current methods of safety evaluation are used to study the tailing pond safety from different angles. But these studies failed to comprehensively distinguish the security situation of tailing pond. Based on the revolutionary theory, this paper uses initial fuzzy membership function and mutation series and combines the revolutionary theory and fuzzy analysis to resolve the multiple layers of target of the whole tailing pond, and then the ultimate catastrophe function can be obtained through quantitative computing by the normalization formula. The safety level of the tailing pond can be determined by transferring the ultimate catastrophe function. The engineering example indicates that the comprehensive evaluation model based on catastrophe theory can accurately judge the security situation of tailing pond.

Key words: Catastrophe theory, Tailing pond, Safety, Comprehensive assessment