Abstract: An integrated method for forecasting the spontaneous combustion of blasted muckpile of sulfide ore is proposed which is based on catastrophe progression theory.The method makes a multi-level contradiction decomposition of the forecast objects influencing the spontaneous combustion of muckpile, obtains catastrophe fuzzy member function by combining the catastrophe theory and fuzzy mathematics, and carries out comprehensive quantified calculation by normalization formula to finally obtain one parameter, or the total member function for forecasting the spontaneous combustion of muckpile.Five spontaneous risk levles are determined by interpolation method and catastrophe progression value scope is defined for each level.Testing is made on ore samples from seven typical mines.The forecast results of this method, the Dow chemical forecast results and the real conditions of muckpile are compared.The results show that the catastrophe progression method has high success rate and strong objectivity.Its discriminate rate for a copper ore is rather high and can also reach 83.3% for other six typical ores with unknown ventilation conditions.It provides a new way for the research on the forecast of spontaneous combustion of sulfide ore muckpile.

Key words: Catastrophe progression method, Sulfide ore, Spontaneous combustion, Blasted muckpile