关键词: 开采沉陷, 沉降预测, 概率积分法, 曲线拟合法

Abstract: In order to further analyze the subsidence causes and predict the rule of the surface subsidence in the Xulou iron mine，firstly,the development status of surface subsidence status of the first phase mining project of Xulou iron mine are introduced;then the subsidence causes of Xulou iron mine are discussed in depth from the five aspects of surrounding rock stress field variation，ore-bodies occurrence conditions，groundwater drainage in mining area，regional geological structure and the goaf filling;finally,base on the existing engineering geological data and subsidence monitoring data,the probability integral method and curve fitting method are adopted to predict the surface subsidence range and settlement in the mining area,the prediction results are analyzed in detail.The results show that:①the surface subsidence of the mining area is jointly resulted from the factors of surrounding rock stress field variation，ore-bodies occurrence conditions，groundwater drainage in mining area，regional geological structure and the goaf filling;②the subsidence area predicted by the probability integral method is about 0.22 km2,the main shaft,auxiliary shaft,air shaft and the most of the mining industry field are lied in the predicted mining subsidence area,it is more likely to cause the goaf subsidence disaster with great danger;③the curve fitting results with high accuracy and good effect that is comparatively in agreement with the actual measured data,that is to say,the curve fitting results can well reflect the actual surface subsidence situation of the mining area.The above analysis result further show that the surface subsidence range and settlement of the mining area with the trend of violently accelerating,the actual measured surface subsidence range and settlement are much smaller than the prediction results which indicated that a part of surface buildings or constructions and facilities are located in the prediction area,in addition,with the comprehensive development of the second mining stage project,the surface subsidence range and settlement in the mining area will continue to increase in a short term.Therefore，the probability integral method and curve fitting method can better predict the surface subsidence in the mining area,it has practically significant for the control and prevention of surface subsidence in Xulou iron mine.

Key words: Mining subsidence, Subsidence prediction, Probability integral method, Curve fitting method