关键词: 抗滑稳定, 可靠度分析, 蒙特卡洛法, 参数变异性, 独木垅尾矿坝

Abstract: Monte Carlo method was introduced in anti-sliding stability analysis and assessment for Dumulong tailing dam.Considering the influences of the variability of tailing mineral parameter such as the cohesive force，internal friction angle，bulk specific gravity and uncertainty of pore-water pressure，the stability safety factor and its reliability index of the tailing dam are calculated.Both security indices show that the stability of the dam is in critical condition.Then the pore-water pressure is determined as the most leading factor for affecting the instability of the dam by the sensitivity analysis of these random variables.And then the reinforcement measures on improving drainage facilities in the dam are suggested accordingly.The research method adopted in the paper has a reference for analysis and evaluation of similar tailing dams' stabilities.

Key words: Anti-sliding stability, Reliability analysis, Monte Carlo method, Variability of parameter, Dumulong tailing dam