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Metal Mine ›› 2026, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (3): 42-54.

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Research on the Prediction and Evaluation Method of Rockburst in Deep Mining with Multi Source Fusion

XIONG Xiaochen1 CHEN Xiang2 HU Junsheng1 ZHU Jin3 JIN Changyu4 WANG Shengjian1   

  1. 1. Anshan Chentaigou Mining Co. ,Ltd. ,China Minmetals Corporation,Anshan 114051,China;2. Minmetals Mining Holdings Limited,
    Hefei 230000,China;3. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan 430072,China;
    4. State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Deep Metal Mining and Equipment,Shenyang 110819,China
  • Online:2026-03-15 Published:2026-03-31

Abstract: Deep resource mining has gradually become the new normal in the mineral resource development industry,and
its rockburst disasters require in-depth research. Taking a domestic deep iron ore mine as an example,this study integrates
measured in-situ stress analysis,theoretical model derivation,digital modeling simulation,and rockburst stress criteria to propose
a multi-source fusion-based rockburst evaluation method. Firstly,in-situ stress testing was conducted in the mining area to
determine the maximum principal stress value and the dominant direction of the maximum horizontal principal in-situ stress.
This allowed for an overall assessment of the rockburst risk in the mining of two levels at this mine. Subsequently,influencing
factors of rockburst were derived based on theoretical model analysis,and digital models were established for deep mining
stopes (below 1,000 m) and shallow mining stopes (above 1,000 m). The mining processes of stopes at different burial
depths were simulated,with quantitative analysis and comparisons made regarding displacement,stress,and plastic zones. Finally,
a comprehensive evaluation of rockburst risk for stopes at different burial depths was performed by integrating numerical
simulation results and rockburst stress criteria. The results indicate that as the burial depth increases from the -780 m level to
the -1,020 m level,displacements in the stope roof,floor,and sidewalls all show an increasing trend,with an approximate increase
of about 30%. In terms of stability,displacements in the pillars and the area of the plastic zones also increase,with
growth rates of 22. 89% and 122. 65%,respectively. Additionally,as the maximum principal stress in the stope roof and sidewalls
increases,the risk of rockburst further escalates. Based on the comprehensive evaluation results of rockburst risk derived
from measured in-situ stress analysis,as well as the evaluation results of rockburst risk using numerical simulations and stress
criteria,it is concluded that no rockburst occurs in the roof and sidewalls of stopes at the -780 m level. In contrast,slight rock
burst is observed in the roof of stopes at the -1,020 m level,while no rockburst occurs in the sidewalls.

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